The aim of the subproject on the Subprojects Beliefs and Savings Behavior is to measure subjective probabilities of morality, and other economic and health events, and to relate to those beliefs to saving behavior. The first question is whether the elderly are "rational" in their life- cycle planning, given their beliefs. The second is whether these beliefs are realistic. A final aim of the project is to identify the size and correlates of the subpopulation of the elderly that are economically stressed, and determine the extent to which this condition is the result of "bad luck", remediable with an actually fair insurance program, or is the result of bad planning or unrealistic beliefs, and thus less amenable to correction via a voluntary market solution. This subproject will use newly available panel data, including questions on subjective probabilities, from the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) and the Survey of the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest-Old (AHEAD).